Fantasy Premier League Gameweek 16 Preview

In this FPL Gameweek 16 Preview we will do our usual top talking points, fixture tickers, should I buy/sell, captaincy corner and my moves.

Top Talking Points

AFCON and The Asian Cup

There are only five gameweeks left until the start of the African Cup of Nations and The Asian Cup in January. It’s time to start thinking about this. Fortunately for you, we have written a comprehensive guide include dates and players that we think will play. We will be updating over the next few weeks. You can find it here. TL;DR – start planning your transfers.

Mbeumo Injury Replacements

Sadly, Bryan Mbeumo is injured, and “it’s bad” according to his manager, so we all need a replacement for him. So, who is on our Mbeumo replacement list? There are lots to choose from but you probably own one or two of them. All of them have good fixtures too.

• Bowen – He’s the West Ham talisman and getting about 0.5 xGI per game so is a great pick. The only thing is he is a bit more expensive than Mbeumo at 7.6.
• Sterling – Chelsea also have great fixtures but Sterling may only be a good shout in the short-term. He is frustrating to own as he doesn’t return often. But he’s put up double digits against two of the three newly promoted teams this year and plays Sheff Utd in Gameweek 17. Of course, in the last two games he literally put up 0.00xG so know he is a risk. He also has 4 yellows so will inevitably pick one up in the next game and get suspended.
• Palmer – Palmer is a lot cheaper than Bowen and Sterling at 5.3. He’s been putting up insane numbers thanks to a lot of penalties. His xGI per 90 is 0.75 and without penalties it’s 0.41. Why do we care about non-penaly xGI? Well, Nkunku is close to being fit and he might take them off Palmer. He might even take his first team spot but we doubt it.
• Gordon – This guy plays for one of the best attacks in the league and is getting 0.5xGI per game. His fixtures don’t really matter but regardless they are good. Pretty cheap at 6.1 but I think we can be relatively safe in knowing that he will rotate with Barnes when the latter returns ahead of gameweek 18 against Luton. I’m not selling but I’d buy with caution.
• Hwang – I think it might finally be time for me to admit that this guy is a good asset. I just can’t wrap my head around a Wolves attacking asset being good. But, he’s getting 0.49 xGI per game for only 5.7. On the other hand, he has 4 yellow cards and The Asian Cup coming up soon so you will need to transfer him out later. Feels like Gordon or Palmer are better options for the price.
• Bailey – Number 1 points per start with 7.8 points per start. I don’t really think he is an option in FPL because he doesn’t seem to be 100% nailed and is rotating a bit with Diaby but in Draft he could be a fun pick.

I like any of these guys so its quite hard to pick a favourite so consider your team and risk appetite and pick one. I’d probably take Palmer as the top option just because the fixtures are good for so long and he is so cheap.

Spurs Are No Longer Dead To Us

We thought a Maddison-less Spurs would really struggle. And, whilst they have struggled to win, they still look good and Son in particular has remained a good points scorer.

His xG is pretty low but, as someone yelled at us on Reddit, he always overperforms his xG. Historically, he overperforms it by about 40% which is just absurd (that’s over 274 games so we feel happy about the sample size). If I take a ludicrously small sample size of Son’s last 4 games (the ones without Maddo) then Son is still overperforming his history beating xGI by about 0.3. So…

I’m not rushing to get him in ahead of The Asian Cup but I still think you can happily hold him.

Porro is the one I have my eye on. Yeah, they don’t really care about defending but this guy spends so much of his time in the opposition half that he is a good asset.

Dubravka Starts! Areola Doesn’t!

Dubravka also conceded 3 goals… But let’s focus on the fact he played. 4.0 for a keeper in the third best defence in the league? Yes. Please.

Apparently Areola had a wrist injury. It’s currently not clear whether he starts the next game… That means you and I are in trouble probably.

Fixture Tickers

This is a regular stalwart of our pieces throughout the year. We will look at which teams have the best fixtures over the next five gameweeks to help you plan your transfers.

Teams in capitals are home fixtures and teams in lowercase are away fixtures.

Ahead of FPL Gameweek 16 the fixture tickers are looking interesting.

Defensive Fixture Ticker

Chelsea top the fixture ticker this week. To be honest with you, they only have like three games between now and 29 that I wouldn’t want to start one of them. None of their defenders are 100% nailed but I love Colwill for the price tag of 4.5. Chilwell is injured long-term so that left back spot is available and he can play through the middle. Thiago Silva has played every game this year but he’s something like 83 years old now so I’m not sure he will start every game. Regardless, I think he is a good pick. I have NO INTEREST in Reece James – he can’t play twice in a week and will just get injured again. I can’t be arsed with him in this busy part of the season.

Wolves have the fifth worst defence in the league according to xGC. Just avoid them.

Newcastle are class and have a great defence, even with their little injury crisis. I’m not hugely surprised about the result against Everton. They are a much better side than they are given credit for. Trippier is an obvious pick in this run – he has attacking potential and frequently gets bonus points – but he is expensive. Lascelles remains a risk because we just don’t know when Botman will come back. Howe is a liar so we will never know. So, its probably Schar that is the safer pick and he’s not a bad option as he semi-frequently scores worldies which helps him match his 5.2 valuation.

Forest are the 11^th best defence in the league on xGC but they only have 3 clean sheets. So, basically, they are fine. I don’t think I would want to play them away to Wolves or home to Spurs. I wouldn’t advise going there.

As for Spurs, I just love Porro. Not many teams are keeping cleans and Spurs are certainly not gonna get you lots – they’re the 12^th best defence in the league. But this guy loves to attack. Udogie is nowhere near as good but I appreciate there is a price difference.

Attacking Fixture Ticker

We have covered Gordon, Sterling and Palmer in the Mbeumo replacements but TL;DR – yes, they’re good. I wouldn’t consider Jackson, who is like the anti-Son because he has high xG and can’t score, or someone like Almiron, who is just bad.

I like Isak but he remains a rotation risk (even with Wilson out). Howe has played Gordon up top and Joelinton can do a job up there (a shit job, but still). Regardless, I like Isak.

As for West Ham, this is why I held Bowen. He’s easily the best asset for the Hammers. Ward-Prowse ain’t bad either. As for Soucek, there are probably 20 midfielders I would rather have right now. And, if you are getting him as your bench guy then I think that’s a waste of money.

Should I Buy

In this section, we will look to answer the most basic question. Should I buy this player ahead of FPL gameweek 16?

Palmer, Bowen, Sterling, Gordon – Yes. See Mbeumo replacements above.

Alexander-Arnold – He’s expensive but obviously good. I think he’s a fun pick. I won’t be buying him but I can’t say he’s bad.

Dubravka – Yes. May get replaced in January but that’s future you’s problem.

Cunha – Not a big fan of this one. Why?

McTominay – No way. He might be the best attacking asset at Man United now but that’s saying something about Man United not him.

Watkins – I’d probably hold him now if I had him. Yes, Arsenal ain’t a great fixture but why sell when you need him back for 18?

Colwill – Yes. Like him.

Sanchez – I’d rather have Dubravka or Raya.

Joao Pedro – No thanks. I like players who are nailed and he ain’t.

Saka – He’s still good but the great fixtures are over.

Son – See above.

Should I Sell

In this section, we will look to answer the other basic question. Should I sell this player ahead of FPL gameweek 16?

Mbeumo – Yes. Injured, soon blanks and then is possibly off to AFCON for 4 weeks. Easy sell.

Hwang – Probably not this week but you should start thinking about an exit strategy.

Pope – Yes. Out for ages.

Doku – I wouldn’t buy him but wait for news before selling. Could triple return or not play next game. Who knows.

Cash – Yeah sell. Too expensive to wait and see if he starts again.

Andersen/Mitchell/Guehi – Definitely sell Andersen – too expensive and/or you can make a profit. The other two you can bench or sell. Regardless, their good fixture run is over.

Nketiah – Yes. Why do you even have him?

Diaby – Sadly, yes. I don’t understand what has happened but he’s not playing enough to hold.

Darwin – If you just bought him then why are you selling him so fast? I don’t mind selling I just find it confusing.

Alvarez – Na. Hold another week.

Saliba – I wouldn’t sell him but I wouldn’t hold him on wildcard.

Tsimikas – Nah. He should play this week.

Captaincy Corner

You aren’t seriously asking are you? Haaland is the best captaincy option in FPL Gameweek 16. He plays Luton.

Someone on Twitter said: “what if he gets rotated?” I don’t care. He could play ten minutes against Luton and score. Regardless, I think he starts as they need to get their shit together

James’ Move

I have moved Turner, Lascelles and Mbeumo to Dubravka, Colwill and Palmer.

That’s it!

Good luck in FPL Gameweek 16! Hope you all do well and I do better 😊