Fantasy Premier League Analysis – Gameweek 16 Review

Fantasy Premier League analysis - gameweek 16 review

With this being a bloody tough FPL season so far, I’d been looking forward to a bit of a break from the ol’ Premier League. Now that it’s here… I don’t want it! Well, that’s human nature for you. 

I’m sure I’ll get into the Winter World Cup spirit as the week wears on. For now, let’s milk the last bit of FPL goodness we have for all it’s worth. Here’s a full roundup of our last Fantasy Premier League fixtures for ages and ages (*sniff*).  

 

Fantasy Premier League Analysis – Gameweek 16 Review

As noted in my last Fantasy Premier League advice column, Gameweek 16 felt like a bit of a one-off. With the free World Cup wildcard coming up, we could basically choose whoever the hell we wanted for this last hurrah of the FPL season’s first half. 

Here’s a semi-comprehensive review of all the matchups from Gameweek 16, along with FPL analysis for each and every one. 

 

Man City 1 – 2 Brentford

Like loads of other sad sacks, I was glued to Twitter for Man City news as the deadline approached. I’d probably have moved Foden if he was benched again, and would definitely have captained Kane if Haaland wasn’t starting. As it was, both made the Starting XI for the first time in several weeks. 

I watched all of this game. City were basically just banging their head against a brick wall throughout, and occasionally getting countered-on. 

Foden’s goal was spectacular, and – for yours truly – was very, very welcome after weeks of frustration. 

(Yup – they don’t call me the King of Social Media Engagement for nothing)

Haaland was defended brilliantly by the Brentford big boys. Check out Match of the Day’s analysis on it, if you haven’t seen it yet. He’s a lock in all of our post-World Cup teams regardless. 

De Bruyne was running the show as usual, but without his usual effectiveness. If you’re going Three-mium after the break, it’s a straight shootout between him and Salah for your non-Haaland/Kane spot. 

I’m not sure what I’ll do with Foden. He’s great, and always produces when he starts, but as soon as the Champions League gets rolling again Pep Roulette will start back up with a vengeance. 

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Ivan Toney was spectacular on Saturday. He was his usual nasty, physical self, looked dangerous on the counter, and could have had at least three goals. 

Toney goes into the World Cup break behind only Haaland and Kane among forwards, and is a sizable 14pts ahead of fourth-placed Jesus. Brentford have Spurs and Liverpool in their first three games after coming back, but I’m not sure it matters. Between their counter-attacking style, and Toney being on pens, he’s basically fixture-proof.  

Right now, Toney’s looking like my third post-World Cup forward alongside Haaland and Kane.

 

Liverpool 3 – 1 Southampton

Salah owners, I feel for you. I watched a good chunk of this game, and was shocked Mo didn’t score. He was playing as an out-and-out striker, got great service, had chances, was playing a rubbish team… and still blanked. 

Mo or No Mo is going to be a massive call after the World Cup. Both he and Liverpool have looked miles better recently, but he’s still ridiculously expensive (12.8), and has barely outscored the likes of Trossard, Odegaard, Martinelli, Madisson, Rodrigo, Saka, and Foden, all of whom are at least 4.0 cheaper. 

Normally, Mo’s price doesn’t matter, because he’s the best player in FPL by miles anyway. This season, he just doesn’t look good value. 

Darwin played extremely well again. Klopp’s moved him out to the left wing, following injuries to Diaz and Jota, and it’s worked a treat. He’s still getting plenty of shots off from out there, is arriving in striker-like positions, and is linking up well with the others now too. He’s fine value at 9.0, but – if you’re going Haaland and Kane – there’s a lot of great options for that third forward spot. 

Robertson got two assists, and they were both legit. He’s still way too expensive (6.8) for a team that don’t keep cleans.

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Southampton defended well. They don’t have anyone we care about in FPL, though. 

 

Bournemouth 3 – 0 Everton

The strong links between Bielsa and Bournemouth are bizarre. Gary O’Neil has taken them from a laughing stock getting thumped 9-0 to 14th in the table. Bournemouth still don’t have anybody I care about in Fantasy Premier League (including you, Solanke), but come on! 

—

Everton remain a black hole in FPL. 

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West Ham 0 – 2 Leicester

Even ignoring their 15th-place IRL, West Ham are one of the most disappointing teams in the league from a Fantasy Premier League perspective. 

Bowen has flopped after two great years. Antonio has done nothing with the minutes he’s been given. Scamacca starts instead of him but hasn’t scored for six games. I like Fabianski, but when he’s your most exciting FPL asset, it’s not exactly a ringing endorsement. 

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One could argue that Leicester shouldn’t have been so spectacularly crap to start with. Let’s stay positive though, and commend The Brodge on turning things around. 

Maddison has led the charge here. He’s always had great spells, but is finally putting together a more consistent, week-in week-out campaign. He only played 24 minutes before going off injured here, and still managed to score a very nice goal. He looks full of confidence, and is fairly priced at 8.2.

Barnes offers even better value on paper, at 6.9. He’s now scored in four of his last five games. I still don’t trust him, based on prior experience… but if he comes out of the World Cup break in similar form, and Leicester keep playing this way, he’ll be hard to keep ignoring.

Finally, let’s give a massive round of applause to Danny Ward.

Here were his first eight weeks (back when we all thought we were sooo bloody smart for having a 4.0 starting keeper):

FPL analysis - Ward first few weeks

Here’s what he’s done since (after we all got sick of him and moved for Pope):

FPL analysis - Ward last few weeks

Yep – he’s gone from 0pts (six goals conceded vs Spurs), to six clean sheets in eight games. He’s now the sixth-highest scoring goalkeeper in FPL (without any penalty saves *cough* Dean Henderson *cough*), and – unsurprisingly – is the cheapest keeper on that list by miles. 

We started our season with him. We’ll have him after the World Cup. And, almost certainly now, we’ll finish the season with him. Danny Ward, ladies and gentlemen – owner of the most improbable redemption arc in recent FPL history.

 

Spurs 4 – 3 Leeds

Kane is brilliant. He scores every week, which is exactly what you want in FPL (rather than a Vardy, who’ll go crazy for three weeks then blank in the next four). I don’t care if he’s expensive (11.6), and there are loads of other options – he’s a lock in my post-World Cup squad.

Kulusevski started (as predicted in my last column), and immediately looked brilliant again. His assist here was beautiful, he assisted another goal in a 22-minute sub appearance against Liverpool, and he’s just great. Kulu is right at the top of that big cluster of 8.0-ish midfielders.

Perisic – one of my 10 most disappointing FPL players of the season – blanked again. He’s still 22% owned. I give up.

The Spurs defence looked terrible, including (and especially) Dier. I don’t want any of them coming out of the break. 

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Leeds are the most entertaining team in the league right now. Every week they either stage an improbable comeback or blow a lead, and it always happens late in the game. 

I’m looking hard at Rodrigo after the World Cup. He’s only 6.3, is playing out-and-out striker, and starts every game now for a super-attacking team. He’s scored in four games in a row, and his finishing against Spurs was fantastic. 

The only problem? He has City home then Newcastle away after the break. I’ll probably leave him for those games, hope his price drops, then jump on him when the fixtures turn. 

 

Notts Forest 1 – 0 Crystal Palace

The Nottingham Forest Bore Tour continues. 

They’ve now kept four cleans in their last six games in all competitions. It’s working, but we’re obviously only considering their defenders for FPL, and none of them get any attacking returns, never ever. So, that’s an easy no!

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After falling off the wagon a few weeks ago, I re-committed to my lifelong pledge of never falling for Wilf Zaha in Fantasy Premier League again. Right now, I’m feeling pretty good about that. 

We knew he was starting as a striker here, so – in a vacuum – I didn’t mind the pick (that’s me trying to make my Full 90 FPL co-conspirator James feel better). This is Wilf, though – he will let you down, and promptly did again this weekend. Crap finishing and a missed pen saw him get precisely 0pts in 90mins. 

That’s three blanks in his last four, and all in pretty easy fixtures. However he’s doing post-World Cup, and whatever the fixtures… don’t fall for him again! 

FPL tips - Zaha is a trap

 

Newcastle 1 – 0 Chelsea

Newcastle go into the break third in the table, and it’s completely legit. We basically have to have a triple-up after the World Cup. 

Trippier is obviously a lock. He was brilliant defensively in this game, and has a spectacular 96pts already. 

Almiron is another lock. I was initially scared-off by his track record, but bought in a few weeks ago and haven’t regretted it. He’s now returned in five games in a row, and still only costs 5.8. We’ll see if he can keep the form going after the World Cup, but he has to be in our squads as we find out. 

Whoever starts out of Wilson or Isak will be worth having. Unfortunately, we don’t know who that will be. 

The Newcastle defence is the joint-best in the league. Pope is expensive, but would obviously be a smart double-up with Ward. Botman is the best budget option though. He starts every game, has four cleans in his last six games, and only costs 4.4.

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The entire Chelsea squad made my aforementioned Most Disappointing list last week, which is quite hard to do when you spend a gazillion pounds in the summer. 

They were crap again here, and somehow – despite the many, many big names they possess – we don’t want any of them. 

 

Wolves 0 – 2 Arsenal

I hadn’t watched Wolves live for a while. They might have one of the worst attacks I’ve seen in recent years. Nobody in that team has a clue what to do in front of goal. 

As such, unless they buy a striker in January who isn’t Diego Costa, we have a nice post-break strategy: Operation Target Wolves. It doesn’t matter who’s playing against them – that team is probably keeping a clean. 

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This was a tough game for Arsenal. They weren’t great in any phase of the game, including at the back, and would have been punished by a more clinical team (i.e. any other team). 

That said, they’re still chock-full with great FPL assets. Saka and Martinelli are both locks in your team, leaving us with one spot.

I’ve got Ben(jamin) White as my third. Benny Blanco got his third clean in a row here, and – at 4.7 – is an incredibly budget-friendly route into the league’s best defence. Jesus did look good again here, and his five goals and six assists are nothing to sneeze at. Between White’s value and the wealth of other forward options, however, it just makes more sense to look elsewhere. 

Intriguingly, after his two goals here, Odegaard actually finishes the first half as Arsenal’s highest points scorer. He’s also cheaper (6.4) than Martinelli (6.8) or Saka (8.0).

I’ve watched plenty of my (re-)beloved Gunners this season, however, and our floppy-haird captain just doesn’t get in the positions of the other two. His returns have also come in bunches, as opposed to Saka, for example, who returns basically every week. 

 

Brighton 1 – 2 Aston Villa

Yet another game I watched.

(I didn’t have much going on this weekend)

Brighton were pretty good in general. They basically matched Villa stride for stride, and the game – cliche alert – really could have gone either way. 

Trossard looked great again. He’s their most dangerous playmaker, floats between the left wing and attacking central areas, and had a spectacular disallowed goal. This ended his three-game run of returns, but – at 7.1 – he still looks a good value pick post-World Cup. 

Considering how good they are, I’m quite surprised how little I care about any other Brighton players. 

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My Unai Emery fangirling was well-judged! That’s back-to-back wins to start Unai’s second spell in the Prem, against Man U and Brighton, neither of whom are pushovers. 

For FPL purposes, unfortunately, there’s still not anybody who’s particularly relevant. 

Ings looked sharp, but there are so many other forward options. Bailey didn’t start, again, although he’s so cheap (4.5) he might be on our post-WC benches by default. Ramsey looked good on the left wing, but isn’t worth it 5.2.

 

Fulham 1 – 2 Man U

Regarding your FPL team, it’s the same old story for Fulham. You’ve already got Andreas on your bench. Mitrovic is the only other player you care about, but he’s had regular fitness issues and missed out again here. 

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Just don’t bother with Rashford after the World Cup. Take out the Arsenal game, and he’s got two goals and one assist all season. 

Bruno got an assist. It’s a mark of just how far he’s fallen that that’s actually a big deal. He’s pretty expensive (9.8), considering how many good midfielders there are. That said, if and when Man U finally grow the guts to jettison the world class-whiner formerly known as CR7, Bruno will immediately become good again.

 

Gameweek 16 – My FPL Team

After treading water for what felt like months, I finally had a good week. All my players except Cancelo, Saka, and Haaland returned. Joao and Haaland are both massively-owned anyway, so neither of them hurt me.


FPL analysis - my gameweek 16 team

I’d spent quite a bit of time looking at the Gameweek 16 options, and – when the Foden & Haaland-starting news was announced – finally settled on Darwin to replace Wilson, who still has the sniffles. Judging by FPL Twitter he was a pretty popular pick, but his ownership is still only 11%, so I was delighted with the two goals. 

Having been languishing in the 1million+ hinterland, I saw a massive jump in my OR. I’m now around 425k. That’s obviously nothing to write home about (not that I write home about FPL much anyway), but shows just how far you can jump with a good week. As such, I’m definitely confident I can kick on after the World Cup and still finish in a good place. 

I’ve already touched on it plenty of times in this article, but I think there are a lot of great options coming out of the break, particularly in midfield. 

Right now my FPL strategy is Cancelo/Trippier/budget at the back, Haaland/Kane/Toney(/Mitro) up top, and somehow narrow all the great midfielders down to a starting four. I must say, however, that binning the super-expensive Cancelo (7.4) is becoming increasingly tempting…

 

Gameweek 16 FPL Analysis – Final Thoughts

As noted, having previously been looking forward to a break from FPL, I’m suddenly – having had one good week – wishing it could’ve come a bit later. 

Fortunately, we’ve got Fantasy World Cup to fill the void!

World Cup Gif Thread - Page 2 - Hob Nob Anyone?

Considering we all take Fantasy Premier League way too seriously, I always enjoy Fantasy World Cup as a nice change of pace, and – quite simply – a bit of fun. 

James has already been cranking out Fantasy World Cup Explained content, including a full breakdown of the rules, and a basic strategy to follow. Follow us on Twitter – @Full90FPL – to get all our latest Fantasy World Cup tips hot off the press. 

In the meantime, enjoy the break everybody, and I’ll see you back here when Gameweek 17 kicks off! 

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