In this Fantasy Euros 2024 piece, we will look at the strategy going into the knockout rounds and provide a shortlist of the best players going into the round of 16.
Don’t forget that you have unlimited free transfers coming into the round of 16 and make sure to take advantage of it.
As I said before, I am far from a European football expert but I’m sitting about 67k right now so I must be doing something right.
Strategy Corner – Do You Have Your Wildcard Still?
Your strategy in Euros fantasy rounds now depends on whether you have your wildcard left for the knockout rounds.
If you saved your wildcard, you can afford to take more risk because you have a wildcard to fix it. So, you can quadruple up on your favourite teams. You can also back good players on bad teams. However, I still think it’s better to target the biggest mismatches and hope for a cricket score in one of your games. This is probably the last gameweek/matchday where a big spike in points will be possible.
If you do not have your wildcard left, you need to take less risk and think more carefully about who will make it through to the next round. You can do that by looking at the list below which sets out the likelihood of teams to make it to the next round. We have done this by converting their odds of success into percentages. Bookies know more than you and have good data (that’s how they make money) but other factors also come into play so don’t take it as gospel.
| Likelihood to make it to Quarter-Finals |
| Spain: 90.91% England: 85.71% Netherlands: 83.33% Portugal: 83.33% Germany: 76.74% France: 71.43% Austria: 69.23% Italy: 57.45% Switzerland: 48.78% Turkey: 36.36% Belgium: 33.33% Denmark: 27.40% Slovenia: 22.22% Romania: 22.22% Slovakia: 20% Georgia: 14.29% |
If you do not have your wildcard left, you also need to pick players from different sides of the draw. There is no point having 15 players from one side of the draw because you will not be able to field a full team further on in the tournament and you won’t be able to take advantage of switching captaincy. Cheers to whoever posted this on reddit:
One side of the draw is clearly easier than the other which means you want to strongly consider quadrupling up on England as their players will likely make it to at least the semi-finals. If, like me, you are English this will feel strange because we have no faith in our lacklustre team. But, that’s what the odds are saying.
Best Defences In the Tournament
In terms of expected goals conceded, these are the best defences left in the tournament:
- England – 1.3
- Germany – 1.8
- Belgium – 2.3
- Denmark – 2.3
- France – 2.4
- Portugal – 2.5
- Spain – 3.1
- Switzerland – 3.4
- Romania – 3.5
- Netherlands – 3.6
- Italy – 4.0
- Slovenia – 4.1
- Slovakia – 4.4
- Turkey – 4.8
- Austria – 5.5
- Georgia – 8.1
Of course, its only been three games so we shouldn’t read too much into this but it does give us a good indication of both defences and fixtures to target.
Don’t Forget To Pick Players Playing on Different Days!
Final thing before I list a bunch of players. Don’t forget to pick players who play across different days so you can take advantage of subs and captaincy changes.
| Date | Game 1 | Game 2 |
| Saturday 29th June | Switzerland v.s. Italy | Germany v.s. Denmark |
| Sunday 30th June | England v.s. Slovakia | Spain v.s. Georgia |
| Monday 1st July | France v.s. Belgium | Portugal v.s. Slovenia |
| Tuesday 2nd July | Romania v.s. Netherlands | Austria v.s. Turkey |
Favourite Picks For The Round of 16
The biggest mismatch in terms of quality is the Spain v.s. Georgia game. I cannot see myself not quadrupling up on Spanish assets. I’m particularly interested in attacking assets like Morata and Williams. Yamal is an edge case for me because he is listed as a forward in the game and I don’t like that. Still, he’s not a bad pick. In defence, there are lots of good picks but Cucurella and Le Normand are the cheapest. Simon is also a good keeper but a bit expensive.
England look very solid in defence even if they look bad going forward. So, I’m tempted with Guehi and Pickford as the cheapest entry points. I’d also take Stones and Walker if price was no concern but I think Trippier is a risk as Shaw must be close to being fit.
Netherlands are not that inspiring but Gakpo has been good. I don’t think Depay is a good shout up front. Simons has looked okay but not actually done much. I think my favourite remains Dumfries even though he’s not been rampaging forward so much as I want him to.
Portugal have a good fixture too. They may have lost their last game against Georgia but don’t read too much into that. They were guaranteed to go through anyway so they rotated a lot of the squad. I would happily triple up on them with Fernandes, Cancelo and Costa. You could even tempt me with Ronaldo, though I think there are better options at forward. I think Mendes is fit so he is a good cheap option too.
Germany have a tonne of great options and a reasonably good fixture. As I said before, Mittelstadt will stay in my team for the entire tournament because he is so cheap and attacking. Anyone across that back line (and Neuer) are good shouts though. The midfield three of Musiala, Gundogan and Wirtz are all great options. And, Havertz up top is also not bad.
France only have one attacking option and that’s Mbappe. The defence is solid enough and Belgium have looked poor so I don’t mind Kounde or Upamecano. But, I wouldn’t go all out on this defence. Belgium are still a good side and whilst I expect France to advance, I don’t think they will keep a clean sheet.
As for Austria, I would be shocked if they don’t beat Turkey and I think they have a great chance of making the semi-finals. Unfortunately, it’s basically just Baumgartner and Sabitzer who are of interest. Still, I’ll definitely have at least one.
The Rest
The Italy-Switzerland game could go either way for me. I think there are better options out there but the Italian defence is fine.
De Bruyne is still himself and so I would never bet against him. Equally, Lukaku is still the highest scoring forward in the qualifiers so I like his chance to score a goal, but not more than that.
Eriksen is an okay shout for Denmark. He will be pivotal in anything they do.
Stanciu at Romania remains a fun pick. He’s on all the set pieces and pivotal to that attack. I am expecting that Netherlands will concede in this game as they try to attack it (like against Poland and Austria) so he could be an option.
Finally, the Georgians are just fun aren’t they? And what are we doing if we aren’t having fun?
The Knockouts Shortlist
If you are feeling really lazy, I have done you another shortlist:
| GK | DEF |
| · Neuer – Germany – 6.0 · Simon – Spain – 5.5 · Pickford – England – 5.0 · Costa – Portugal – 5.0
| · Cancelo – Portugal – 6.0 · Walker – England – 5.5 · Rudiger – Germany – 5.5 · Dumfries – Netherlands – 5.5 · Stones – England – 5.0 · Mendes – Portugal – 5.0 · Kounde – France – 5.0 · Upamecano – France – 5.0 · Cucurella – Spain – 4.5 · Le Normand – Spain – 4.5 · Guehi – England – 4.5 · Mittelstadt – Germany – 4.0
|
| MID | FWD |
| · De Bruyne – Belgium – 9.5 · Fernandes – Portugal – 9.0 · Musiala – Germany – 8.5 · Wirtz – Germany – 7.5 · Williams – Spain – 7.0 · Simons – Netherlands – 7.0 · Gundogan – Germany – 7.0 · Kvaratskhelia – Georgia – 7.0 · Eriksen – Denmark – 7.0 · Baumgartner – Austria – 6.5 · Sabitzer – Austria – 6.5 · Stanciu – Romania – 5.5
| · Mbappe – France – 11.0 · Kane – England – 11.0 · Ronaldo – Portugal – 10.0 · Lukaku – Belgium – 9.0 · Havertz – Germany – 7.5 |
That’s It.
I think that’s probably going to be the last bit of content we will do for the euros. Hope you enjoyed it an see you when the FPL season starts.