Unai Emery at Villa – Do We Care? And If So, Why?

FPL analysis - Emery at Villa

It’s an exaggeration to say you must’ve been living under a rock if you hadn’t heard about Unai Emery’s move to Aston Villa. Considering how many trophies he’s won, he does somewhat fly under the radar. 

Either way, Arsenal’s old boss has decided to swap sunny Andalucia for Birmingham just as the seasons turn. Strange! It cost Villa a reported six million euros to spring him free, and – lest we forget – Emery turned down his last chance to come back to the Prem not so very long ago. 

All FPL managers are also football fans, so I’d guess we’re all pretty intrigued to see how this turns out. I’m putting my Fantasy Premier League hat on for this one though, and answering two main questions. 

Firstly, do we care that Emery has gone to Villa? 

Secondly, if we do care… why?

Let the FPL analysis commence!

 

Emery at Villa – Does it Actually Matter?

Managers get binned off all the time. 10 were sacked in the Prem last season, and five have already left/been fired this year. 

Frankly, this often doesn’t matter in Fantasy Premier League. Has Wolves firing Bruno Lage had any effect on us whatsoever? Nope. Scott Parker being replaced by a caretaker manager you’d probably never heard of has helped Bournemouth’s real-world fortunes. In FPL, we still couldn’t care less about them (no offence, Cherries fans). 

This plays into a wider discussion on whether firing managers actually makes a difference. That’s beyond the remit of this article, but briefly I’d argue that it does… but only if the manager being brought in is truly special. 

Graham Potter has shown he is special. His arrival at Chelsea has already seen a transformation in their defence, to the point where – if you’re dropping your wildcard right now – Kepa (of all people) is an absolute lock. 

 

What About Emery?

Is Unai Emery at that aforementioned level? 

At a basic level, I like Emery a lot. I’m an Arsenal fan who felt he got a pretty rough deal. His fifth-place with us is still our best post-Wenger finish, and he got us to the Europa League final. 

He’s indisputably a great tactician. I watched Villareal at the Nou Camp recently, and – even though they got beat, mostly by Lewandowski – it was amazing to watch how incredibly well-drilled his team was. I genuinely haven’t seen organisation like it, in-person, since I saw peak Atletico Madrid at the Metropolitano back in 2018. 

It’s fair to say, however, that there are two Unai Emerys (Emeries?). 

His tactical prowess means he’s a brilliant European manager. You already know the track record – a ridiculous three Europa Leagues in a row with Sevilla. Another with Villareal in 20/21, followed by a great run to the Champions League semi-final in 21/22. 

League Emery is not Cup Emery, though. As noted, his fifth-place finish with Arsenal was – compared to what came after – pretty good. Regardless, I was very much of the view have gotten top four that year. After Arsenal, in two full seasons at Villareal, he finished seventh both times. Not bad… but nowhere near what he was achieving in Europe. 

So, do we care about Emery coming to Villa? 

My basic answer is yes. He’s highly-experienced, has managed massive teams and Villa-sized sides alike, and is a brilliant tactician. Going from Steven Gerrard, who’d basically won one-horse races with Rangers, to a manager who’s proved themself – to various extents – in Spain, France, and Germany – is night and day. 

I don’t think Villa are suddenly going to burst into the top four. I do think, however, that he’s got a massively better grasp on tactics and getting the best out of his players than Gerrard does.

 

Emery at Villa – What Are We Looking For?

In my recent mega-preview of the upcoming fixtures, I lamented how many top Fantasy Premier League assets were currently being wasted at Villa. Just look at this list:

Almost all of those players has been effective in Fantasy Premier League before. The likes of Coutinho, Digne, and Martinez have been FPL stars. Watkins and Ings have been solid picks. Ramsey showed plenty of potential last season, and Bailey arrived with plenty of hype. 

All of them were crap under Gerrard. 

We’re not asking Emery to work miracles here. We’re simply banking on a proven manager getting proven/high potential players back to levels at which we’ve seen they can perform.

 

Players to Watch

Ings (6.6) and Watkins (7.2) should be the most exciting players on this list. 

Ings is clearly in decline, with his minutes (2,800 → 2172 → 1891) and his goal tallies (22 → 12 → 7) all heading straight downwards. He’s still only 30 though, and has shown his penchant for instinctive finishes already this year. In the right system, with decent service (which he should absolutely have, based on this squad), he could easily get 15 goals per season (pro rata) in this team. 

Watkins is a talented player, and has gotten 23 and 14 goals/assists in his past two seasons. He’s almost certainly suffered from being forced into a side with Ings – another striker – but Emery played two up top with success at Villareal. I genuinely think Watkins and Ings could thrive together.

With that said, I’m actually more intrigued by Villa defensively going forward. Emery sets his teams up with an extremely solid foundation. Villareal conceded less than a goal per game in the 21/22 La Liga season. This year, before Emery left, they had already kept six clean sheets in 10 games. 

That’s right, everybody – Digne (4.6) is back on the menu! He’s got a heel injury at the time of writing, but let’s not forget this is one of the best attacking full-backs in the league, available for a budget price. Before a troubled 21/22 (partly due to Benitez, who hated him), Digne registered nine and eight assists in his prior two seasons. 

Martinez (4.9) and Cash (4.6) have also proven themselves in seasons past. Martinez is definitely a talented keeper, and – while Cash’s four goals from 21/22 aren’t happening again – he’s a lock to start each game. Mings (4.3) is incredibly cheap, but – having already been benched by Stevie G – we’ll have to see if Emery actually trusts him or not. 

The last name I’m intrigued by is Bailey (4.6). He had plenty of hype at Leverkusen, and scored nine goals in his final season there (30 appearances). He’s scored three goals across 29 appearances for Villa since then. His minutes under Gerrard were absolutely all over the place, but he played great in their most recent fixture against Brentford (1 goal, 1 assist, in 70mins). At that price, if he starts regularly under Emery, he’s a brilliant pick.

 

Thanks But No Thanks (I.e. The Coutinho Part)

FPL analysis - coutinho

I’ve already said why you should exercise caution with Mings. He’s a classic, big, ‘ra-ra’ English centre-back, so we all think he’s good, and he’s cheap in FPL too. Gerrard really didn’t rate him though, and he’s unlikely to shine in comparison with Villareal’s excellent Pau Torres. 

Let’s keep an eye on him. If he’s a regular starter, for a good defensive coach, he’ll be a lock at only 4.3 for your World Cup wildcard.

Elsewhere, I know what you want. You want me to talk about Coutinho (6.6), don’t you?

Well, I’m sorry, but he’s a boring old wait-and-see for me right now. 

Emery liked a 4-4-2 at Villareal, which wouldn’t suit Coutinho at all. And – if you want to see a classic #10 falling from grace under Unai – look no further than Mesut Ozil. In general, I don’t think Coutinho’s actually that good any more anyway. I saw him several times in-person for Barcelona, and it was pretty depressing. He was trying all the same stuff as the Coutinho of old… but none of it was coming off. 

Many of us saw (and most of us enjoyed) Coutinho’s hot start at Villa, when he was great against Man U in his debut. He’s literally got 0 goals, 0 assists this season though. I’m pessimistic. 

 

Final Thoughts

From a real-world perspective, I’m really excited to see Emery at Villa. I like him as a person, I like him as a manager, and – even if they ended up getting hammered (mostly by Lewandowski) – I really enjoyed watching Villareal live against Barcelona recently. 

From a Fantasy Premier League perspective, I’m also pretty excited. This team is brimming with proven FPL players, or those with plenty of potential. I don’t think Gerrard is a good manager, so going from him to Emery should – at the very least – get these players back to the level we’re accustomed to. 

You’re probably not bringing in Villa players before the World Cup, unless they catch fire under Emery and you fancy a fun, short-lived punt. If we see some signs of progress in the next few weeks though, we’re going to have some very intriguing options indeed to choose from. 

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