Understanding the early FPL fixtures is key to creating your Gameweek 1 team.
We’ll see fixture-proof players emerge as we go along – Mitro loved playing against the big teams in the first half of last season, for example. For Gameweek 1 though, the only true fixture-proof players are the no-doubt FPL superstars: Haaland, Salah, Kane… and that’s it.
Regarding your non-superstar picks, you need to know who those players are going to be up against.
Early FPL Fixtures Analysed
I’ve trawled through every single team’s early season FPL fixtures, so that you don’t have to. Roughly-speaking, this covers the first 4-8 gameweeks or so.
If a team has an excellent start to the season, I’m automatically interested in their players.
If someone has a rubbish Gameweek 1 fixture, then a great run afterwards, they can still be worth stashing, benching for the one bad game, then bringing in.
If they have a few bad games to start the season though, I just don’t want them. I hate ‘planned transfers’ to start an FPL season. They assume nothing else will go wrong… which it always does.
(For this reason, also look to bank your transfers as often as you can in the first few gameweeks. Stuff will go wrong, and you need as many moves as you can get your hands on to put out those fires).
Obviously, the other main problem we have is that… we don’t really know which teams will be good or not.
We can assume that Man City and Arsenal will be tough games… but aside from that, I wouldn’t be massively confident in predicting anyone will actually be a difficult matchup.
I’m more confident in predicting the crap teams. Obviously we count on promoted sides getting demolished until proven wrong. The likes of Bournemouth and Forest also shipped enormous quantities of goals in 22/23, and I’ll be targeting them mercilessly.
Without further ado, let’s get stuck in.
Teams With Good FPL Fixtures
Pretty simple. These are the sides with a nice early run of fixtures, whose players – as noted – I’m automatically interested in.
(Opponent in capital letters = home game)
Arsenal
Fixtures: NOTTS FOREST, Crystal Palace, FULHAM, MAN U, Everton, SPURS, Bournemouth
I love it, love it, love it.
(And not just because I’m an Arsenal fan)
We all had an Arsenal triple for most of last season, and it’ll be tough to resist diving straight back in this year. Most of these teams are solid targets, and even the two ‘harder’ games – Man U and Spurs – are both at home, and both fixtures Arsenal won last season.
This is the best talent/fixtures combo to start the season.
Chelsea
Fixtures: LIVERPOOL, West Ham, LUTON, NOTTS FOREST, Bournemouth
I’m actually pretty bullish on Chelsea this year. Poch is a fine manager, and they’ve had a proper preseason to sort out their many, many problems. The squad itself is also stacked with talent, including plenty of former FPL assets (James, Chilwell, Sterling, etc.).
Liverpool in the first week isn’t ideal (although Liverpool’s defence wasn’t great last season). But it’s a dream run after that.
I’ll happily get at least one or two Chelsea players (Sterling will almost certainly be in my Gameweek 1 team), maaaybe bench them against Liverpool, but then definitely start them the next four weeks in a row.
Man City
Fixtures: Burnley, NEWCASTLE, Sheff Utd, FULHAM, West Ham, NOTTS FOREST, Wolves
If a whole team could be fixture-proof, that’d be City. They’ve got great fixtures anyway though.
If Pep Roulette didn’t exist, we’d all be tripling up on City. Unfortunately it does!
Everyone will have Haaland anyway. After that, it’s basically up to you whether you want to gamble. Ederson, Dias, and… probably Kev (?) will likely start. Apart from that, who the hell knows.
Grealish is cheap enough (7.5) that I’ll probably have him. The only other option I’d consider is Dias, but at 5.5 – and for a defence that usually starts slowly – I probably won’t bother.
Spurs
Fixtures: Brentford, MAN U, Bournemouth, Burnley, SHEFF UTD
Spurs are one of the biggest question marks in the league right now. We don’t know if their manager’s good, if their best player’s staying, if their team is still rubbish… That’s a lot of unknowns!
Those are some very nice attacking fixtures, however.
Pairing Kane with Haaland will be tricky, even if he does stay. I certainly don’t hate just going with Kane, especially if it gets you Salah too.
I’ll be taking cheaper gambles, however. In particular, these fixtures are easily good enough to give Maddison – priced at only 7.5, and surely starting from Gameweek 1 – a chance.
Decent Fixtures, But…
Now that’s a catchy subtitle!
This is a mini-section, for two teams that have pretty good fixtures, but also come with major caveats.
Brentford
Fixtures: SPURS, Fulham, PALACE, BOURNEMOUTH, Newcastle, EVERTON, Notts Forest
Apart from Newcastle away, I wouldn’t worry too much about any of these fixtures (the Spurs game looks scary, but Brentford’s comeback against them at home last season will likely still be in both sides’ minds).
The only problem is… they haven’t actually got many FPL players I want, now that Toney’s on the naughty step.
If Raya does leave for big money, and they don’t get a replacement, I’m snapping up a Brentford keeper for 4.0 immediately. Their defenders are tempting as it is, with all the starters except Mee only costing 4.5, and those being some very nice defensive fixtures.
For me though, Mbeumo is the interesting one.
I love watching him in real life – he works hard, and is selfless, smart, and technically very good. While the obvious question is whether he’ll be as good without Toney, he actually played well with Wissa up top too last season. He got 9 goals and 9 assists last year, is nailed to start, only costs 6.5, and has solid attacking fixtures. He’s also a midfielder now, so will get points from any Brentford cleans.
Everton
One of my three favourite football gifsFixtures: FULHAM, Villa, WOLVES, Sheff Utd, ARSENAL, Brentford, LUTON, BOURNEMOUTH
Now obviously, Everton have been a really, really, really bad team for two years now.
But also… Sean Dyche! With a full preseason!
I wouldn’t touch any of their mids or forwards with a barge pole. The goalkeeper and defenders, though, are intriguing to say the least. Fulham, Wolves, United, Luton, and Bournemouth could easily all be cleans.
Pickford is only 4.5, and is currently in my own Gameweek 1 team. I’m wary about doubling up, since I’m not that confident… but Tarkowski – also only 4.5 – is very tempting.
Teams With Bad FPL Fixtures
Enough positivity – there are also plenty of teams out there with rubbish early season schedules.
For the record, these include Bournemouth, Burnley, Notts Forest, and Wolves. We don’t really care about any of them in FPL anyway, though.
Here are the three teams which – annoyingly – are actually good, but have tough starts to the season.
Newcastle
Fixtures: VILLA, Man City, LIVERPOOL, Brighton
Premier League Anti-Saudi Arabia conspiracy confirmed!
That is an absolutely brutal start to the season. City and Liverpool are two of the best teams in the league, and Villa and Brighton are both super-solid.
This is particularly annoying because Newcastle have a few nice FPL assets. I wouldn’t touch any attacking players to start the season, though (Wilson, Isak, Barnes, Gordon, etc.).
Newcastle’s fixtures do get much better. After that nightmare run they have BRENTFORD, Sheff Utd, and BURNLEY in a row.
I still wouldn’t stash any expensive players. That definitely includes Trippier, at 6.5. I am, however, considering Botman. He’s underpriced again at 4.5. I can potentially start him against Villa and Brighton, and then definitely start him for the three aforementioned easy games.
Liverpool
Fixtures: Chelsea, BOURNEMOUTH, Newcastle, VILLA
This is the hardest Talent vs. Fixtures call we have.
Liverpool have really annoying fixtures across the first eight gameweeks. Even after that run of three good opponents in their first four games, they have Wolves and West Ham (fine), but also Spurs and Brighton away (tricky).
If you’re getting Salah, you don’t care. He’s a sure thing.
If Liverpool are Old Liverpool again, then we shouldn’t care about any of this, since – as City still are – they were basically fixture-proof for years. Unfortunately, we don’t know if they’re going to be the side we saw in the first half of last season, or the second half.
I definitely wouldn’t have any of their non-Trent defenders.
In Jota, Diaz, Darwin, and Gakpo, we unfortunately have four players for two spots.
I definitely like Gakpo the most from that bunch. He managed 7 goals and 3 assists in 17 starts last year, only costs 7.5, and will probably be the centre-forward. He’s currently in my Gameweek 1 draft.
Then… we come to The Trent Conundrum.
He’s super expensive, at 8.0. He’s also a big question mark. Like Liverpool as a whole, he was crap in the first half of 22/23 and great in the second half. We’re definitely not counting on him for cleans, particularly with those early season fixtures. But – even in an inconsistent season – he did still manage 11 assists last year…
I’m really not sure where I fall with Trent. With Liverpool as a whole though, their tricky early season fixture run – combined with a major turnover in the midfield – generally makes me wary.
Villa
Fixtures: Newcastle, EVERTON, Burnley, Liverpool, PALACE, Chelsea, BRIGHTON
Sigh.
Villa were great last year, after Emery arrived, and have lots of interesting FPL players. Unfortunately, their fixtures are rubbish to start the season. Everton, Burnley, and maybe Palace are okay. All the other games are very tough.
In real life, I’d back Emery to do fine – he thrives in the biggest games. In FPL though, I wouldn’t trust anybody.
There’s a massive turn in their fixtures starting in Gameweek 8. Until then, unless Watkins decides to lay waste to the league again, we’re steering clear.
Final Thoughts
One could plausibly argue that trying to predict how early-season FPL fixtures will go is a fool’s errand.
Well in that case, and not for the first time, I am proved a fool.
I do firmly believe, however, that we can glean a lot of insight from doing so. It makes me far more interested in players I’d otherwise be on the fence about: the likes of Sterling, Grealish, and Maddison, then… basically all Villa and Newcastle players are on the opposite side of the equation.
It’s almost all guesswork, as we’re putting our Gameweek 1 teams together. But the more information we can gather, the better, and analysing the early FPL fixtures is one of the more useful exercises we can do.