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It’s time to dive deep in the midfield position in Fantasy Premier League and identify the best picks at every price point.
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Right, let’s get into it!
I think it’s obvious that Bruno Fernandes is a great pick given he has pens, set pieces, open play threat and a few defcons thrown in too. I don’t expect him to match his 235 points from last season but he should get 190 points if he stays fit, which he almost always does.
He’s also really expensive at 12.0. So, really the question is if you want to have him and Haaland or whether you prefer to spread your funds. I think both options are viable. Last week I favoured just Haaland, this week I favour both. And, the reason is that Bruno’s minutes are guaranteed but the other United options are at risk of being subbed early. And, of course, United start the season with some plum fixtures in Hull (away) and Ipswich (home).
The other premium guys have more questions around them.
At 9.5 we have Saka and Palmer. Saka has broken 200 points in a season twice before and last season he was 5th behind Haaland, Bruno, Gabriel and Cherki in points per start. He also got 10 defcons – matching Bruno – which is something I think we can continue to expect given Arteta’s ‘defend from the front’ attitude. I do think the FPL community are sleeping on him a little bit but I can hardly blame them as he hasn’t come into any of my tinkers because of my concerns about his fitness. That could change with the Community Shield.
As for Cole Palmer, I feel like he is a bit of an unknown. He has also broken 200 points twice in recent memory but he was so poor last year, possibly also because of fitness issues. With a new manager, in a new system, I am somewhat wary of him, particularly given how good Bruno’s opening fixtures are. So, I think I’ll pass to start the season and re-assess in gameweek 4 when his fixtures get really good.
And finally, Semenyo sneaks into this list after being priced at 8.5 all by himself. I’m wary of his ludicrous overperformance of his underlyings last year, the new manager and tactics; and, the squad depth. That being said, he looks hot in pre-season and the talk is that Maresca wants to make use of his wide players so he could start the season well. Still, he is a wait and see for me but I can see why others are tempted.
We have three guys to choose from at 8.0 – Cunha, Mbeumo and Gibbs-White.
Starting with the United guys then. They have a great couple of fixtures to start the season which means naturally we gravitate towards them. I prefer Mbeumo because I think he is more nailed and can play wide or through the middle. I also just think he is better than Cunha – though both have overperformed xGI in their best FPL seasons. Still if we look at last season Cunha’s xG was 6.90 and Mbeumo’s 11.98 from about 5% more minutes.
Morgan Gibbs-White is more nailed than either of these guys and is on pens but plays for a worse team with great fixtures sandwiched by awful ones in his first five. I know we think of him as an end of season specialist but Tom at Who Got the Assist has shown that his underlyings don’t actually get any better at the end of the season. So, I think you can confidently start the season with him.
So, my order of preference would be:
But, of course, your order may change based on chip strategy etc.
Kroupi Jr. is out with a long-term injury so we are ignoring him straight away. That leaves us with five guys (burger and fries).
My favourite of the lot is probably Wirtz because he is nailed and I believe he is better than he was last year. That “believe” is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here but we know from previous seasons in the Bundesliga that he is a great player and I believe (there it is again) he will have adjusted to the Prem this season. But, I can’t lie and say there is no risk – both the underlyings and the actuals were uninspiring last season. I just think that he has potential to make a mockery of this price tag.
The same is probably true for Cherki at Man City who, as covered above, was 4th best last season for points-per-start. The trouble is, he only started 19 games last season. Maybe we see him start the Community Shield at the weekend and that will make us feel more confident that he is nailed but I am just not sure. Even though we don’t have to deal with Pep doing his bald rotation thing we have another bald manager who is a Pep acolyte with incredible depth in his squad that will probably rotate. If you pick him, then I think it’s ballsy and could pay off but he could also just not play. And minutes are king in FPL.
As for Doku, I don’t see him anywhere near the ceiling of Cherki. He’s fantastic to watch, excellent at taking on a man and great at advancing the ball. But, you don’t get points for that. Bonus point changes might help him a little bit but his underlying numbers are just kind of mediocre.
Rogers, now of Private Equity Blues (that’s Chelsea) could be excellent. He always outperforms his underlyings, which are already decent. However, outdoing xGI is a very Emery thing to do – that’s why he is such a good manager. So, it’s unclear to me whether Rogers will keep that up. That, on top of the plethora of attacking options at Chelsea is enough to sway me off him at the moment.
Finally, we have the dullest pick of them all – which probably means he is a good pick – in Declan Rice, Rice Baby. He is the guy you want if you are looking for a low ceiling, high floor kind of guy. Incredibly, when he played 90 mins last season he only scored 2 or fewer points three times. Fortunately for us, Arsenal ran him ragged last year and Tuchel decided to try and kill him at the World Cup so there are huge fitness concerns about him coming into the new season. Even if he plays the Community Shield, I think that means you swerve him for now but reconsider him on your inevitable early wildcard.
So, my order of preference then:
Did you know Szoboszlai is 7.0? Of course you did. He’s in over 40% of teams for a reason and that reason is routes to points – set pieces, pens, defcons, open play threat. I actually think he is probably not the penalty taker when Isak is on the pitch. And, I think people are perhaps expecting too much from him. But, he is still in my team because it feels like such a good price.
Bruno G. is like a less good version of Rice but probably more nailed to start the season. He has always been kind of fine on his attacking output – like a 5 goals, 5 assists kind of guy. And playing boring Arteta ball probably won’t help pump those numbers. Defcons didn’t do enough to make him very appealing either. He got 10 DefCons last season and that was more than we would expect of him based on his underlying DefCons the season before.
Foden is the exciting pick here – which probably means he is a trap. He once put up a 230 point season with 19 goals and 8 assists. But that was when he played 2860 mins – he has never done that before or since. We don’t know if he is nailed but if he is, he is another guy who could make a mockery of this price tag.
Gakpo and Enzo still have a fair degree of transfer speculation surrounding them so I would just avoid them. And, Rashford is not nailed and may also leave if United can convince anyone to take on his monster contract.
My order of preference:
We have 20 guys to pick from at this price bracket so lets do some quick whittling down.
I don’t trust any of the Arsenal guys (Eze, Odegaard, Madueke, Martinelli, Tzolis) to play 90 every week but if I had to pick one for my team it would be Odegaard. You probably think he’s in his 30s but he’s actually only 27 and was a key part of Arsenal’s attack a few years back. I still believe he is capable of a 180 point season if he plays 34 games but he probably won’t play them and he probably won’t play 90 even if he does. Joe (who runs this site with me) is an Arsenal fan and he is usually right on them and he isn’t interested at all. That makes me sad because I love Odegaard but I have begrudgingly accepted his take.
At City, Grealish is injured, Rodri is injured and probably leaving and Savinho is probably leaving.
That leaves Elliot Anderson. This is a guy I feel genuinely conflicted on. He was king of the defcons last year and got 9 goal involvements off 7.73 xGI last year too. My instinct is that he won’t match his defcon performance from last year because a) last year was an exceptional defcon year; and, b) he will have less to do with City dominating possession. However, as my friend and colleague Joe pointed out on this very site, the stats from last year suggest that minutes are enough for Anderson to continue to keep his DefCon crown. Have him or don’t – either decision makes sense to me.
At Spurs, we also have a bunch of options that are probably not fit. Kudus seems to have a knock but his weak underlyings don’t interest me anyway. Kulusevski is just permanently injured it seems. And, Maddison is working his way back from an ACL. If Maddison was fit, I would be very tempted. Two years ago he got 9 goals and 8 assists in a measly 1800 mins. Alas, he will probably hurt himself again before I get a chance to consider him.
Now, we have some guys I am excited about. Rayan may be the beneficiary of Kroupi’s misfortune and form an integral part of the Bournemouth attack. I really liked his underlyings last season and Bournemouth have a good history of picking up good players cheap (see Semenyo). Shame about City on the opening day.
Dango went to AFCON for a few weeks last year which is why you don’t see him with 160 points and is one of the reasons he is going under the radar. The underlying numbers are great and Brentford are another team who can find talent (see Mbeumo). And the fixtures are pretty good.
Sarr has long been a darling of the FPL community thanks to a combination of strong underlyings, actual delivery and decent pricing. I like him this year as much as I did last year which is to say I like him a lot. Again though, shame about City in gameweek 2 and Europe will probably make him a worse pick for the year.
I am less hot on Harold Wilson. His spell as Prime Minister left much to be desired, though I’m sure he tried his best. But, it’s his underlyings that concern me most. He basically overperformed them by about 90% last year and weirdly enough I just don’t think that’s sustainable. I think he’s probably fine, but I don’t like him as much as these other guys.
Dewsbury-Hall is another one with ludicrous overperformance last year but he isn’t anywhere near my thinking. He has played 3 seasons of over 2000 mins and only last season did he get more than 2 goals and 3 assists.
Finally, I have no interest in Neto or Estevao. The former just puts up weak numbers year in, year out and the latter is not nailed. Nor do I think Munoz’ 8 attacking returns in 34 appearances in La Liga scream that he is a good FPL pick.
So, in order of preference to start the season:
Okay, there are 33 players in this bracket… I am gonna try and give quick opinions.
Let’s start with Villa. Manzambi is the new signing and may be stepping into Roger’s shoes – that makes me tempted to take a bit of a risk in draft but not to start the season in ordinary FPL. Buendia and Garnacho are also 6.0 but I am not sure either is nailed. I like the upside of Nacho more if Emery can sort out his attitude problem but they aren’t picks to start the season.
At Bournemouth, we have Tavernier, Scott and Kluivert. I think they all have potential upside but I am not ecstatic about any of them. Scott got 30 defcon points last year which is great but his attacking returns were quite few and far between so at the moment I think you can get a 5.5 guy with similar output instead. Tav could be on pens and is pretty much nailed with decent attacking threat but is still a bit meh. Kluivert could take those pens too and with Kroupi out he might start – two years ago he scored 12 goals and got 6 assists too so there is a lot of upside there. All in all, ones to watch but lets wait a few weeks and see how the new manager beds in.
I am personally a big Schade fan. But that bastard fucked me last year with a million blanks. On the other hand, he scored a hat-trick too – not many guys down here are capable of that. If he can match his underlyings again then he is an option. Anthony is a problem though – he may take Schade’s minutes and he was pretty good last year..
At Brighton we have Mitoma, Minteh and Hinshelwood. Mitoma is injured but even when fit he is a rotation risk – he has never played more than 28 games in a season. Minteh is a guy smart football nerds rate but similarly has never played more than 26 games in a season. And, Hinshelwood was good at points last season but he has never played more than 22 games in a season. Basically, Huerzeler likes rotating and with Europe this season too, I am not sure any of these guys will ever be an option. If you forced me to pick one it would be Hinshelwood because of how good he was in the second half of last season.
For Everton, Garner is so good at defconning and set piecing that I wish he was fit – if he was, he would be straight in my team. Unlike a lot of managers, I am not that excited about Ndiaye. He may be on penalties but his open play threat is pretty mediocre.
At the end of last season, Stach was a guy I thought I would be interested in. When he was fit he was great for defcons (20 points) and backed that up with set pieces to get to five goals and six assists. If he played 3000 mins and returned at the same rate he would have had 173 points. The only thing holding me back is Wilson might take the set pieces from him.
Enzo Le Fee somehow got 147 points last season without being in many of our teams. 5 goals, 6 assists, 16 DefCon points with some pen share and set pieces in his first season in the PL last year. I am really down on Sunderland and worried about European football but this guy could be really good and I like the opening fixtures.
Looking at Sunderland’s big rivals there are four guys who may be interesting but I have no idea who is nailed, if anyone. If I had to guess, I would say Barnes is probably going to start and then he is a good pick. But I really don’t know and any of him Elanga, Murphy and Toure could be starters.
Finally, we have Mateus Fernandes at Spurs. He smashed 30 defcons for West Ham last year and added a decent number of attacking returns. I just think there are too many questions about Spurs for me to be interested in this guy over any of these other guys.
And here are the reasons why I am not considering the others:
My order of preference then:
Let’s start with content creator darling Pascal Gross. I like Gross, he’s on set pieces and pens and he is reasonably on defcon. He also got 78 points in half a season last year after returning to Brighton midway through the season. But, I don’t love him. He’s just turned 35 and Brighton have to play European football before gameweek 1 even starts – I simply don’t think he can play all the minutes, which means I worry about rotation and rest in the PL.
Then we have my bae in Granit Xhaka. I think he’s a really underrated player in general because of his time as a pantomime villain at Arsenal. He’s on set pieces, has a bit of open play attacking threat and is pretty good on bonus. He got 124 points last season which is great for 5.5.
Next up, Ethan Ampadu for Leeds scored 134 points last season. He was a defcon beast, finishing 7th of all FPL players for DefCon last year, who underperformed a little on goals – just getting one from 2.47 xG. He’s my “most likely to be Elliot Anderson 2.0” now Garner is out injured. But, naturally the ceiling feels much lower. His teammate Aaronson put up 126 points from 30 starts – I don’t hate that but he’s far more reliant on attacking output which means he won’t be as consistent.
If he was nailed, I would be interested in Lewis Potter mainly because he would find recoveries (and therefore defcons) easier to come by when playing reverse out of position at full back. But, I don’t think he is nailed. His teammate Damsgaard was someone I had my eye on at the start of last season after he out up 10 assists in the 24/25 season but he didn’t play enough last year for us to trust his minutes.
Despite his love from the football journalist community, Wharton is probably not a pick either. He only got 18 defcon points 6 assists and a goal from 29 starts – Palace will have similar squad depth problems to last year so I don’t think I’m interested.
Don’t go anywhere near Caicedo. I know he had a small hot streak last season but it quickly fizzled. Similarly, MacAllister has never been an FPL relevant pick and I expect that to continue.
Outside of these nine you also have Sangare at Brentford. He has a lot of hype attached to him but I’m just not interested in a guy with no PL mins.
So, my order of preference would be
But, unlike the other lists, I am not comfortable starting any of these guys every week.
“Best” is a bit of a stretch here because I don’t actually think any of these guys are good FPL picks. The only reasons I could see to have them is either a) you want to do a really cheap bench boost; or, b) you want someone third on your bench who will get minutes.
If you are doing the former then I think Rudoni is nailed. He costs 5.0 and got 7 goals and 6 assists across 30 matches in the Championship last year. You could use him on a gameweek 2 bench boost against Hull.
The alternative for a gameweek 1 bench boost is the other Sangare at Forest. Again, I think he is nailed and he could step up into the Anderson role of last year and be good on DefCons.
At 4.5, I believe Regan Slater at Hull is nailed after making 45 appearances in the Championship last season. But, he only got two goals and two assists so don’t expect much more than two pointers every week.
If you are lazy or just looking to plug a gap, use this table with my top two picks at each price point to pick a guy to start the season.
Premium | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 |
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8.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | Under 5.5 |
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Who do you think is the best FPL midfielder this season and why do you agree with everything I have said?
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